How to motivate faster growth in Colombia : the leading sector strategy revisited

This paper reproduces two public lectures given at an Incolda conference in Bogota, October 1, 2002 on La Realidad de la Economía Colombiana. It reviews the great structuralchanges in output and employment over recent decades and how macroeconomic policies can strengthen or weaken the natural forces underlying these changes. It distinguishes between potentially inflationary policies designed to increase demand ina monetary sense, and those that focus on institutional changes that enhance competition and mobility. It explains how inflation distorts the allocation of resources, and why it especially harms long-term housing finance and exports. It explains the logic of Lauchlin Currie's leading sector theory of growth and shows whyand how housing and exports can be given special protection to accelerate development

How to motivate faster growth in Colombia: the leading sector strategy revisited

This paper reproduces two public lectures given at an Incolda conference in Bogota, October 1, 2002 on «La Realidad de la Economía Colombiana ». It reviews the great structural changes in output and employment over recent decades and how macroeconomic policies can strengthen or weaken the natural forces underlying these changes. It distinguishes between potentially inflationary policies designed to increase demand in a monetary sense, and those that focus on institutional changes that enhance competition and mobility. It explains how inflation distorts the allocation of resources, and why it especially harms long-term housing finance and exports. It explains the logic of Lauchlin Currie´s leading sector theory of growth and shows why and how housing and exports can be given special protection to accelerate development.

Nicholas Kaldor, Increasing Returns and Verdoorn's Law

Kaldor, a student of Allyn Young, made much of Verdoorn’s Law but the evidence for this ‘law’ is at best mixed. Verdoorn himself in his 1980 Economic Journal paper made it clear that his law did not have as general a validity as he had earlier believed. Evidence suggests that it is possible for agricultural productivity to grow many times faster than that in manufacturing, as in the US during 1947-84. Also, Young (1928) himself did not regard the law of diminishing returns as useful for prophesying the prospects of agriculture as the agricultural fields of newer lands had been brought closer to the older world through revolution in transportation and technical change in agriculture. Moreover, the logic of Verdoorn’s Law of favouring manufacturing at the cost of other sectors distorts intersectoral relationships, leads to adverse terms of trade for agriculture, and is likely to pose a demand constraint for industry itself. To undo one wrong (i.e., protection to industry), one has to match it with other wrongs like price support and marketing board in agriculture, and dual exchange rates to promote exports. The whole economic system becomes an intricate maze with adverse consequences for growth and productivity for the whole economy

Albert Hirschman, Lauchlin Currie, a teoria dos “encadeamentos” de Rosenstein Rodan e o “grande impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan

This paper introduces an unpublished 1970 work written by the distinguished development economist Lauchlin Currie (1902-93) on Paul Rosenstein Rodan’s famous 1944 essay on the “Big Push” which led to the debate on balanced and unbalanced growth in which Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) was an important contributor. Both Currie and Hirschman had been key economic advisers to the Colombian government and here their respective views on development planning are contrasted. In particular, it is shown how Currie’s 1970 paper clarifies the theory that serves as the basis for Colombia’s 1971-74 National Plan, which he designed and helped execute, and whose institutional innovations have had a lasting impact on Colombia’s recent economic history.Este escrito presenta un trabajo inédito de 1970 del distinguido economista del desarrollo Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) sobre el famoso artículo de 1944 acerca del “Gran Impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, que llevó al debate del crecimiento balanceado y desbalanceado en el que Albert Hirschman (1915 - 2012) fue un partícipe importante. Tanto Currie como Hirschman fueron asesores económicos del gobierno colombiano y aquí se contrastan sus respectivos puntos de vista sobre la planeación del desarrollo. En particular, se muestra que el artículo de Currie de1970 esclarece la teoría que sirve de base al Plan Nacional 1971-1974 de Colombia, que él diseñó y ayudó a ejecutar, y cuyas innovaciones institucionales han tenido un impacto duradero en la historia económica reciente de Colombia.Este texto apresenta um trabalho inédito de 1970 do reconhecido economista do desenvolvimento Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) sobre o famoso artigo de 1944 referente ao “Grande Impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, que levou ao debate do crescimento balanceado e desbalanceado no que Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) foi um partícipe importante. Tanto Currie quanto Hirschman foram assessores econômicos do governo colombiano, e aqui se contrastam seus respectivos pontos de vista sobre o planejamento do desenvolvimento. Em particular, mostra-se que o artigo deCurrie de 1970 esclarece a teoria que serve de base para o Plano Nacional 1971-1974 da Colômbia, que ele desenhou e ajudou a executar e cujas inovações institucionais têm tido um impacto duradouro na história econômica recente da Colômbia

Albert Hirschman, Lauchlin Currie, la teoría de los “eslabonamientos” Rosenstein Rodan y el “gran impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan

Este escrito presenta un trabajo inédito de 1970 del distinguido economista del desarrollo Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) sobre el famoso artículo de 1944 acerca del “Gran Impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, que llevó al debate del crecimiento balanceado y desbalanceado en el que Albert Hirschman (1915 - 2012) fue un partícipe importante. Tanto Currie como Hirschman fueron asesores económicos del gobierno colombiano y aquí se contrastan sus respectivos puntos de vista sobre la planeación del desarrollo. En particular, se muestra que el artículo de Currie de 1970 esclarece la teoría que sirve de base al Plan Nacional 1971-1974 de Colombia, que él diseñó y ayudó a ejecutar, y cuyas innovaciones institucionales han tenido un impacto duradero en la historia económica reciente de Colombia

How to motivate faster growth in Colombia : the leading sector strategy revisited

This paper reproduces two public lectures given at an Incolda conference in Bogota, October 1, 2002 on «La Realidad de la Economía Colombiana ». It reviews the great structuralchanges in output and employment over recent decades and how macroeconomic policies can strengthen or weaken the natural forces underlying these changes. It distinguishes between potentially inflationary policies designed to increase demand ina monetary sense, and those that focus on institutional changes that enhance competition and mobility. It explains how inflation distorts the allocation of resources, and why it especially harms long-term housing finance and exports. It explains the logic of Lauchlin Currie¿s leading sector theory of growth and shows whyand how housing and exports can be given special protection to accelerate development

Albert Hirschman, Lauchlin Currie, la teoría de los “eslabonamientos” Rosenstein Rodan y el “gran impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan

This paper introduces an unpublished 1970 work written by the distinguished development economist Lauchlin Currie (1902-93) on Paul Rosenstein Rodan’s famous 1944 essay on the “Big Push” which led to the debate on balanced and unbalanced growth in which Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) was an important contributor. Both Currie and Hirschman had been key economic advisers to the Colombian government and here their respective views on development planning are contrasted. In particular, it is shown how Currie’s 1970 paper clarifies the theory that serves as the basis for Colombia’s 1971-74 National Plan, which he designed and helped execute, and whose institutional innovations have had a lasting impact on Colombia’s recent economic history.Este texto apresenta um trabalho inédito de 1970 do reconhecido economista do desenvolvimento Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) sobre o famoso artigo de 1944 referente ao “Grande Impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, que levou ao debate do crescimento balanceado e desbalanceado no que Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) foi um partícipe importante. Tanto Currie quanto Hirschman foram assessores econômicos do governo colombiano, e aqui se contrastam seus respectivos pontos de vista sobre o planejamento do desenvolvimento. Em particular, mostra-se que o artigo deCurrie de 1970 esclarece a teoria que serve de base para o Plano Nacional 1971-1974 da Colômbia, que ele desenhou e ajudou a executar e cujas inovações institucionais têm tido um impacto duradouro na história econômica recente da Colômbia.Este escrito presenta un trabajo inédito de 1970 del distinguido economista del desarrollo Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) sobre el famoso artículo de 1944 acerca del “Gran Impulso” de Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, que llevó al debate del crecimiento balanceado y desbalanceado en el que Albert Hirschman (1915 - 2012) fue un partícipe importante. Tanto Currie como Hirschman fueron asesores económicos del gobierno colombiano y aquí se contrastan sus respectivos puntos de vista sobre la planeación del desarrollo. En particular, se muestra que el artículo de Currie de1970 esclarece la teoría que sirve de base al Plan Nacional 1971-1974 de Colombia, que él diseñó y ayudó a ejecutar, y cuyas innovaciones institucionales han tenido un impacto duradero en la historia económica reciente de Colombia

The 1949 World Bank mission to Colombia and the competing visions of Lauchlin Currie (1902-1993) and Albert Hirschman (1915-2012)

As recounted in detail in Michele Alacevich’s (2009) The Political Economy of the World Bank: The Early Years, Lauchlin Currie was chosen in 1949 to direct the first of the World Bank’s comprehensive survey missions – to Colombia (see also the biography of Currie in Sandilands 1990). After his Report was submitted, Currie returned to Colombia to advise on the implementation of his own recommendations. These included the setting up of a national planning board. In 1952 Albert Hirschman (1915-2012) was hired by Colombia’s central bank as an adviser to this board, with strong links to the World Bank